TCO comparison at $50M GMV — which actually wins?

Closer than the brochures suggest. Real numbers from 8 enterprise migrations in this band:

Shopify Plus 3-year TCO at $50M: Plus baseline $2,300/mo OR 0.4% × $50M = $200k/yr (whichever is greater — at $50M the GMV-based fee bites) → $600k+ over 3 years. Per-tx fees ~$75k/yr on Shopify Payments (0.15%) → $225k. 8–12 Plus apps at $1–5k/mo each (Klaviyo, Gorgias, Yotpo, Rebuy, Loop, Postscript, Shipstation, Avalara, Sparklayer for B2B) → $300k–$1.8M. Plus dev / agency $200–500k. Total: $1.3M–$2.9M.

Adobe Commerce 3-year TCO at $50M: AC license tier at $50M GMV is roughly $80–150k/yr (revenue-banded) → $240–450k. Adobe Commerce Cloud infra $50–80k/yr → $150–240k. In-house dev team (3–5 engineers) or agency on retainer over 3 years → $400–900k. Plus extension licenses + monitoring + search add-ons $50–100k. Total: $840k–$1.7M.

AC usually wins TCO by ~$200–800k once you account for Plus app multipliers — but the Plus number is more predictable. AC is cheaper if you run lean; more expensive if you don’t. The TCO winner is whichever platform fits your org without forcing it to grow into the cost.